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Original title: Why can't cotton yarn prices rise?
Since the end of November, cotton wool raw materials have been greatly increased due to the connection of Chenmian and Xinmian. The rise of crude oil and bulk commodities has led to the increase in polyester staple fiber and the increase in cotton yarn transportation costs. The price of cotton yarn has risen by 500-800 yuan/ton. A few large manufacturers of high-count yarns reported an increase of 1,000 yuan / ton). From the perspective of downstream weaving, fabrics, clothing links and foreign trading companies, the price hikes are not to buy, and the hope of pushing up the price and warming up the entire industry chain by the upstream is not great. At present, the pick-up price of Xinjiang “Double 28†hand-collected cotton in Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu and Zhejiang is about 16,000-16200 yuan/ton; the price of “double-double 30†hand-collecting cotton is about 16300-16500 yuan/ton. In mid-December, the callback was 200-300 yuan/ton; while the 1.4D*38mm polyester staple fiber was quoted at 8450-8500 yuan/ton, which was 500 yuan/ton higher than that in September-October. Therefore, textile companies have said that in the past half a month, not only the cotton yarn under 40S has not been profitable or even lost. Even the spinning polyester yarn and polyester yarn have been "fallen", and the finished products of cotton mills have shown a moderate upward trend. So what causes the yarn price to go up? The author summarizes as follows:
First, the dyeing fee has risen sharply, and the profits of the weaving factory, the garment factory and the trading company have been swallowed up. The larger the previous order, the longer the delivery time, the greater the loss, the cloth factory can only pass the risk to the upstream spinning mill. It is understood that due to the increase in the monitoring and auditing of pollution control and sewage discharge by relevant state departments, the printing and dyeing enterprises that fail to meet the standards will be suspended and rebuilt, and the backward production capacity will be directly eliminated. This will affect Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangdong, Hebei and Shandong. The overall dyeing and finishing costs of the other places rose by 0.50-0.60 yuan / m (low-density low-density grey cloth rose 0.30-0.40 yuan / m, high-density high-density rose 0.80-1.0 yuan / m), and the printing and dyeing factory is generally single-stage After the extension to mid-February, the order will require additional mark-ups, and the orders of cloth factories and garment factories will quickly turn from profit to loss. In order not to lose money or reduce losses, they can only “get out†by “squeezing and pressing downâ€;
Second, the port outside the yarn "pillows", especially India and Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam and other yarns into the Chinese market. According to the survey, as of the end of December, China’s main port bonded cotton yarns were about 9.2-9.5 million tons (including a small number of cloth factories or intermediate purchasers but not out of the goods), mainly in India, Vietnam, Pakistani yarn; and recently The contracted shipping price of Indian C21S and C32S yarns arriving in Hong Kong is generally between 2.45-2.50 USD/kg and 2.58-2.62 USD/kg (CNF price). The cost after customs clearance is 700-1000 yuan/ton lower than the domestic yarn price; Because the domestic cotton prices in India and Pakistan are lower than 5,000 yuan/ton in China, the profit margin and competitiveness of the yarn mills are stronger. Cotton yarn traders in Qingdao, Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang and other places report that the inquiry and shipment of imported cotton yarns have been relatively fast since November, and the C20S-C32S yarns and C32S/2, JC32/2 and other high-grade or jet and rapier yarns are better. Once the price of domestic yarn rises again, the difference between inside and outside reaches 1000 yuan/ton, then the yarn market of C32S and below will be handed over to the imported yarn;
Third, near the end of the year, textile and clothing enterprises are mainly inventories, and there is great pressure on liquidity and repayment. By convention, more than a month before the Spring Festival, cotton, cotton textiles, and clothing companies have repaid loans (banks generally follow the principle of “repaying loans firstâ€), settlement materials fees, and the rhythm of workers’ wages and bonuses. The discount on goods is among the top, so the price increase of cotton yarn is equal to "self-seeking dead end." Recently, some small and medium-sized spinning mills and weaving factories in Shandong and Hebei have taken the lead in price cuts. Most domestic enterprises will follow suit, and the tightening of funds is the “common disease†of textile mills before the holiday;
Fourth, Zheng cotton shocks, the price shifts down and the reserve cotton wheel is approaching, making cloth factories, garment factories and trading companies significantly place orders. It is understood that since December 14, Zheng cotton main contract fell from 16,235 yuan / ton to 14,820 yuan / ton, a short four trading days fell 1400 points, causing downstream companies to fall sharply against the cotton spot report, has broken 15000 Yuan/ton, 14500 yuan/ton expected, so the contract price is continuously lowered; in addition, considering the start of the national reserve cotton auction on March 6, as of the end of August, even if the average daily output is 30,000 tons, 2017 The annual reserve cotton round-out plan is not less than 3.5 million tons, which has a relatively large impact on the cotton supply and demand market, cotton prices and cotton enterprises' confidence. Therefore, most orders from cloth factories and garment factories fell to 14500-15000 yuan/ton according to cotton prices. Accounting. (China Cotton Network)
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