After experiencing massive global destocking at the beginning of this year, the sequential growth of China’s exports may reflect the recovery of global demand. If this trend continues, China should reproduce positive growth in exports in December. Experts expect export growth to reach 8.8% in 2010.
According to the September trade data released by the General Administration of Customs on October 14, under the background of the global economic recovery and strong domestic demand, the unfavorable situation of China's sharp decline in imports and exports has been greatly eased: following the sharp decline of 16.9 year-on-year in August. After % and 23.1%, China's import and export declines in September narrowed significantly to 3.5% and 15.2%, resulting in a trade surplus reduced from $15.7 billion in August to $12.9 billion. A number of foreign investment bank experts expect that exports will regain positive growth at the end of 2009.
Sun Mingchun, head of China equity research at Nomura Securities, said that the significant improvement in the year-on-year data of imports and exports should be attributed to two factors: the strong rise in imports and exports since April this year, and the sharp decline in imports and exports in the second half of 2008. The base is smaller. The data shows that after seasonal adjustment, the growth rate of exports in September has actually increased from 3.4% in August to 6.3%, and the growth rate of imports has also accelerated from 1.0% to 8.3%.
Peng Wensheng, head of China's economic research at Barclays Capital and chief economist, said that the quarter-on-quarter and quarter-on-quarter growth rates of the September-adjusted period have been accelerating. This situation is related to the manufacturing purchasing managers' index announced earlier this month. (PMI) sub-indices - the continued growth of new export orders coincided.
The data show that since May, the sub-index of the official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) - the new export order index has remained above 50, indicating that new export orders continue to increase, labor shortages in export production areas Implied an increase in export orders. The new export order indicator for September was 53.3 points, a new high in 16 months. In addition to the recovery of external demand, Peng Wensheng believes that the significant decline in the nominal effective exchange rate of the renminbi has also provided support for the recovery of exports. He believes that the export year-on-year data has bottomed out in August.
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