Auction Market: Windy and Cold

Autumn is the season of collections, and for the art market, this autumn is still "the wind is bleak and cold." Many of the auction companies that entered the market in 2011 have closed down. The number of auction companies participating in the auction this spring was 224, which was a decrease of 71 from the fall of 2011; the number of auctions was 296, which was 113 fewer than the previous auction period.

The auction market has undergone a major reversal, and some auction houses have had to shrink to two beats a year, or even a year. At the same time, some auction houses have fought their way through the off-season market between the spring and autumn auctions. Rong Baozhai used European antique furniture for the first time to test water in Shanghai. The result was “a lot more, buy less”. The buyers placarded caution and the auction was far lower than expected. Christie's Hong Kong organized a famous wine auction through the rise of China's "wine hot". Two auctions, "Precious and rare in the cellar" and "Hands down in Europe," mainly used the "low valuation plate" to obtain a total of nearly 35 million yuan. Turnover. During the four seasons of Beijing Poly and China's Guardian, traditional plates such as calligraphy, painting, porcelain and porcelain were sold. The transaction rate was less than 70%.

A few days ago, related surveys showed that in the third quarter of this year, people thought that the future price of artworks was still unclear, and the market had a strong wait-and-see attitude. Of the surveyed population, only 21.43% thought that art prices would rise in the next 3 months, while those with more than 45% would think that they would decline, and that the future is more than 60% of the right time to buy artworks.

The difficulty of internal and external diplomacy is more endurance than the endurance market adjustment. There is a paragraph that fully explains how cold the market is. After the spring filming, the hostess met with the auction bosses and made a show on the television station. The beginning of everyone's coincidence was that the spring shoot was lasting.

Small companies are struggling, big auction companies are also forced to tap new products, such as Poly Artwork's design artworks, Huachen's Suzhou Embroidery, Urban League's Xuan Paper auction, Hanhai's Tianzhu auction, and so on. Even so, the sharp decline in the turnover of the spring auction is still beyond the expectations of many people. As of June 30, Chinese art auctions totaled 28.116 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.27% year-on-year in the previous year and a 34.22% drop from last fall.

Some people in the market believe that “the restoration of market confidence may take 3 to 5 years. During this period, the market will adopt a wait-and-see attitude to re-understand the true value of art assets.”

The top executive executive editor Hu Hu stated that after the financial crisis in 2008, the art market had risen against the market and formed the largest bull market in history. Many people believe that the cold weather in the stock market and the property market has nothing to do with the art market. In fact, the art market cannot escape from the big economic situation. Since the fall of 2011, under the influence of the deterioration of the domestic and foreign economies, the art market has turned sharply and fell faster than the stock market.

At present, the cooling of the art market continues. Judging from the internal and external environment, the old problems have not been resolved and new problems have emerged. Gong Jiyu, a market senior expert, said that the high prosperity of the art market in the past two years was entirely driven by excess liquidity. This cannot be sustained; this year’s tax turmoil highlights the problem of high tariff rates on art works. The high-quality auction items on the auction site are all overseas. High tax rates have undoubtedly inhibited its development. Third, the investment-led art market is facing **. With the arrival of repurchase next year, the prices of artworks will be under pressure.

In addition to the external environment, the drawbacks of the development of the industry also have an impact on the market, and false pats and fake appearances such as “Jinyu Yuyi” and “HangHan Han Stool” have revealed the lack of supervision. Secondly, the high shooting rate and the fact that it was not bought were serious. The most prominent incident was that the “Sai Chuan-ming” sold for 436.8 million yuan has not yet paid. The issue of integrity and standardization is constraining the development of the Chinese auction industry.

Under the conditions of internal and diplomatic difficulties, two mainland auction giants, Beijing Poly and China’s Guardian, took over overseas and set up branches in Hong Kong. China’s Guardian took the lead in Hong Kong’s first film launch in early October and launched two special events in Chinese painting and antique furniture. Zhao Xu, chairman of Poly Auctions, revealed to the media that Poly's first Hong Kong film will be held in November. The first film will be divided into four major sections: painting, porcelain, painting, jewelry, etc. All auctions will be returned overseas.

At the time of the auction, Dong Guoqiang, the chairman of the auction, also stated that depending on the trend and timing of the policy, he was also considering putting part of his business in Hong Kong. Experts in the industry believe that Hong Kong is a free port, and that in addition to overseas repatriation of works of art can avoid tax, other policies are relatively loose. However, the operating costs in Hong Kong cannot be ignored. Both rent and labor costs are much higher than those in the Mainland. This forced Hong Kong galleries and auction houses to have to take the fine line.

The potential for differentiation and differentiation of the sector This year, the auction market includes spring shoots and small beats. It is no longer paintings and porcelain that account for half of the country. In addition to the traditional plates, there are also hot spots in the plates of ancient books, humanistic sentiments, modern ceramics, and precious metals. For example, the Guoyunlou library book was auctioned for RMB 216 million; Mr. Wang Shizhen’s old collection “Ming Zhou’s production of dragons and beasts and sandalwood pen holders” shot 55.2 million yuan; the contemporary master of art Zhong Liansheng “Han Gong Qiuyue” painted on the glazed porcelain plate 1242. Ten thousand yuan.

In the field of painting and calligraphy, there has been serious polarization. The ancient paintings were the most seriously injured. The works described in the “Shiqu Baoluo” were high price protection. However, with the increasing rationality of the value of the art of painting and calligraphy, “Shiqu Baodi” also lost its high-priced appeal for the past two years. In the spring auction, Beijing Poly shot 4 shots, 3 shots, only one deal. China Jiade took 5 shots, also 3 shots, and sold two. The market point of view believes that the market has been hot in the past few years, resulting in psychological expectations for the price of "Shiqu Baodi" products are too high, and the pricing is too high, which is an important reason leading to shooting. For example, Yan Nantian's "Containing Cranes" is priced at 88 million yuan***, and industry insiders believe that its reasonable price is also more than 10 million yuan.

The differentiation of modern calligraphy and painting is particularly evident. The classic works of Li Keran, Zhang Daqian, and Qi Baishi were sold at high prices, and general works rushed. For example, Lee Ke-ran's “Red Mountain” and “Shaoshan” were sold for 293 million yuan and 124 million yuan respectively, while his works such as “Ni Kuang Washed Totem” were photographed due to excessive pricing. Market participants believe that people will be anxious about the market liquidity of works of art during the market adjustment stage. Therefore, the works of classic and typical artists still shoot up astronomical prices, while the prices of other ordinary auction items drop significantly, and their fluidity deteriorates.

Rong Baozhai’s four-season auctions were closed recently, with 1,151 auctions totaling 156 million yuan. Among them, the average transaction rate of the calligraphy and painting section was 71.78%, and the turnover rate of the famous stone and galleries was 62.79%. At the 19th Poly Auction in Beijing, nearly half of the auctions started at a bottomless price, and they only got a turnover rate of 70%. In this regard, market participants Xi Mu believes that this is a "pity to sell" and "reluctant to buy" in the game, many people have good things, but do not want to come up with the sale; at the same time, there are many people who want to buy, but do not want to spend very high The price was bought, causing art auctions to stagnate.

While traditional auctions are cold, new artists and new fields have received attention. It is understood that the realism work is one of the important sections that mainland buyers are concerned about. This year's market performance is more prominent. In addition, with a large number of middle-class people entering the collection circle, the "70s" and "80s" painters are relatively low in risk because of their low price, and they have become a new round of investment collections. Galleries and auction houses have also stepped up their efforts in digging and launching young artists.

The intensive cultivation of autumn-scenes market participants believes that if this year's autumn auction has a better performance, it is not a change in the market situation with more recent changes, but rather the results of intensive farming by auction companies. For example, found better works, with better customers, more service, etc., and some increase in trading volume.

It is understood that autumn auctions this year, the auction house on the work of the work to do enough to do fine, pay more attention to new, extraordinary, alone, and some debut.

When Qiu Qiu's autumn shoot collection strategy was ingenious, the launch of the "Collection of City Records" activity will be held in the country's top ten cultural cities in succession, and at the same time, activities such as autumn shoot open solicitation will be launched. Poly's autumn auction began in October. It was through the collection of "Diao Diaoyu Iron Card: Qing Jiaqing's ink in the "Notes Beads" hot field. According to reports, after the visit of Poly Business staff, we have found extremely valuable historical documents both at home and abroad. There are the “Keeping Beads” in the ink of the Qing Jiaqing era. It clearly records the records of Shen Fu et al. in Jiaqing May 10 thirteen. The three days of the day saw the process of Diaoyutai (Diaoyudao). It was 76 years earlier than Japan's claim that the so-called "Koshima Shinohiro discovered the island in 1884."

China’s Guardian released the news through Weibo, and the Liang Qichao family’s old possessions, which had long been treasured at No. 54 Hospital, Nanchang Street, Beijing, will be filmed in autumn. This is the first exposure of Liang's old possession. It is understood that this batch of cultural relics has a total of more than 200 pieces of collections, and the most precious ones are more than 130 letters of Kang Youwei and Liang Qichao. Not a few days after the release of the Guardian news, Sui Shi held a press conference on September 17th to announce the archives of the Zangliang's archives on No.54 Nanchang Street, including a total of 950 letters, manuscripts, books, furniture, etc. Beat. This is Liang Qichao's archive with the largest scale, the most comprehensive subject matter, and the most abundant content in the market. Most of the information has never been exposed. This autumn shoot, everyone can see a big two PK battle about Liang Qichao's old possession.

In 2012, Mao Zedong's "Speech at the Yan'an Forum on Literature and Art" was published on the 70th anniversary. Beijing Changfeng specially planned the "Time Melody" special feature scene, among which the works of the new Jinling school of artists Fu Baoshi, Qian Songyan, Song Wenzhi, and Wei Zixi. It is the most important thing.

In the ancient Chinese art history, which has an important position in the history, the Yuan Dynasty painter Zhu Yu's "Uncovering a Scroll" will be on the auction at Beijing Yingshi this fall. The first appearance of Zhu Yu's "Unveiling a Chart" is a major highlight of the Chinese art market during the period of adjustment. It may be the top priority of China's autumn photography this year.

Hong Kong Sotheby's autumn auction will take the lead on October 5th. Sotheby's gathered a number of extremely important overseas collections this season. His key auction items include Fu Baoshi's Shi Tao's poetic interpretation of "Over Ling Ling's poetry" and "Spring Words", as well as Lin Fengmian's collections from North America.

In addition, it is understood that various auction houses in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have increased the collection of Shoushan Stone. Different from previous years, this year's auction houses are competing with each other who can collect good Tian Huang. In the spring auction this year, Tian Huangshi's steady performance in the unsatisfactory environment of the art market has become the pillar of this year's Shoushan stone spring shoot.